Right now, you usually only know a reef bleached after divers go out and survey it. I'm building a model that tries to predict which reef sites are most likely to bleach before that happens, using things like ocean heat stress, depth, and light. It's trained on almost 20 years of survey data.
- Study area
- Florida Keys reef tract
- Records
- 4,537 site-year survey observations, 2005 to 2023
- Predictors
- Thermal stress, long-term temperature history, depth, light, and reef habitat
- Model
- Balanced random forest, tested on held-out recent years
- Outputs
- Predicted bleaching probability mapped at each survey site in ArcGIS Pro
InputsReef survey recordsplus heat stress, depth, light, and habitat layers
→
ModelBalanced random foresttrained on earlier years, tested on recent ones
→
OutputBleaching risk mappredicted probability at each survey site
I'll post the maps and results here once the paper is out.